NZ-W vs SA-W 1st ODI: Probable Playing XI and Winning Prediction

This NZ-W vs SA-W 1st ODI has a simple question at its heart – is New Zealand able to transfer their success from T20 cricket into the longer format, or will South Africa’s more accomplished recent one-day record tip the scales? The match is played on March 29 at Hagley Oval, Christchurch, with the three-match series forming part of the 2025-29 ICC Women’s championship cycle.

Series Context and Stakes

The timing of this match gives it more significance than a standard bilateral series match. New Zealand have already defeated South Africa 4-1 in the T20 stage of the series and finished that series with a commanding victory against South Africa by 92 runs at the same venue via Amelia Kerr’s superb 105 and 2/6. However, South Africa is travelling to New Zealand with an abundance of ODI experience making the most recent T20 series results somewhat less relevant.

The teams will select players in a different manner than they did for the T20 series. The New Zealand ODI squad will feature Kayley Knight receiving her maiden call up as an international cricketer and the returning players include Suzie Bates, Georgia Plimmer and Flora Devonshire whilst the only player not to be selected from the New Zealand squad is Sophie Devine. Meanwhile, South Africa have made three changes to their ODI squad that will feature roundly assembled players Ayabonga Khaka, Masabata Klaas and Dané van Niekerk with Marizanne Kapp still remaining at home as she recuperates from illness.

This leads into an intriguing match up; New Zealand have currently been the more successful team than South Africa recently as New Zealand has home advantage, New Zealand has more current match form and New Zealand have the current “hottest” all-round cricketer in either team as represented by Amelia Kerr.South Africa ranks higher in ODIs, has a better recent head-to-head record in ODIs, and can produce a calm chase or build top order innings.

Game Pulses

New Zealand had the upper hand for one main reason: they looked much more settled in 50-over cricket just before this game. New Zealand beat Zimbabwe in ODIs (won 3-0), scored 354 in the first ODI, and easily rolled through the remaining two ODIs. Over the three ODIs, Amelia Kerr took the bulk of wickets (16 total), including 7 wickets for 34 runs in the second ODI and 5 wickets for 22 runs in the third ODI. Brooke Halliday scored a phenomenal 157 runs in the first ODI.

Those three performances mattered as New Zealand’s outlined core group of players for ODIs has clearer objectives than their outlined T20 core’s objectives. Bates and Plimmer are the top order players for New Zealand’s offensive line. Amelia Kerr can take pressure off her team by consistently attacking spin while controlling the middle phase of the game with the ball. Halliday and Maddy Green give New Zealand two players who can move runs from 85/2 to 230+ while batting without appearing rushed. Each of those players’ roles in the game above were evident during the series against Zimbabwe, and all were equipped for performing well in Christchurch, New Zealand.

𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐖𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧’𝐬 𝐓𝟐𝟎𝐈𝐬

4716 – Suzie Bates
𝟒𝟎𝟎𝟎* – 𝐒𝐦𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐚
𝟑𝟔𝟓𝟒 – 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐊𝐚𝐮𝐫
3473 – Chamari Athapaththu
3431 – Sophie Devine pic.twitter.com/xDVa4T8I5G

— Cricbuzz (@cricbuzz) December 22, 2025

South Africa’s case is built on their existing record as an ODI powerhouse. They’re 4th in terms of women’s ODI rankings (one ahead of New Zealand), and Laura Wolvaardt sits 2nd in the ODI batting rankings.South Africa played Pakistan last month at home in two ODIs and won both, scoring 260 for 6 in the first match and 361 for 8 in the second. In the first match, Sune Luus scored 93 runs and in the second, Annerie Dercksen scored 90 runs before taking 3 wickets.

These two players have played their best ODIs against New Zealand on all surfaces and if they can get used to the different types of balls used, they could be very dangerous to New Zealand during the course of an ODI series.

History is another key factor when it comes to how well South Africa has performed against these sides in ODIs. South Africa has won 7 of the last 8 ODIs against New Zealand since January 2020, including a 6-wicket victory in the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup match on 06 October 2025 with Tazmin Brits scoring 101 runs. New Zealand understands that South Africa’s ODI approach could lead to some uncomfortable cricket matches for themselves, especially considering the recent T20 results point to the contrary.

Where the Match Might Swing

The Control of New Zealand’s Middle Overs

This is New Zealand’s particular strength. The leg-spin of Amelia Kerr and the cricket IQ that she brings with her makes New Zealand much more confident during overs 15 – 35. Halliday looks like she has also found her feet as a stabiliser with the bat during this phase of development.Should New Zealand get this correct, there is a potential they could go at a quicker pace at the end with runs in the final overs of an innings; something that Indian fans would know about because many Indian-based teams have won their matches based on teams being structured but are quiet opposition.

To be able to facilitate this happening, it is critical for Bates to get a score of between 35 and 45 runs early on; after this, you have a chance for your entire team to have the ability to score throughout the remainder of the innings, although Bates doesn’t have to get a century. By having either of Khaka or Klaas bowled out first with no wickets taken by either player, it puts pressure onto Wolvaardt to potentially not attack them too early in their innings with spin bowling; at this point, it creates opportunities for Plimmer to be able to score quickly by hitting the ball square throughout the rest of her innings. Both players’ return will have a significant impact on how New Zealand’s ODI team performs and even greater on how New Zealand’s T20 team performs.

South Africa’s Opening Route

The best way for South Africa to win this opening ODI match is straightforward – get Wolvaardt and Brits to dominate the first 20 overs. The class of Wolvaardt in ODI cricket is indisputable, and the only person to successfully score against New Zealand in ODI cricket after the world cup has been Brits. If either player removes Jess Kerr and Rosemary Mair before they can take 2 wickets within the first two overs, it places both Luus and Dercks into the over-adjustment phase of their innings.

Missing stars

Dercksen has the potential to be the difference maker in the NZ-W vs SA-W 1st ODI. Her recent performances have proven to be able to hold more than just hollow statistics, as demonstrated by her playing innings of 90 and taking three wickets against Pakistan during August of 2010 in an innings total of 706 runs, followed by becoming the leading scorer (55 not out) in New Zealand’s 4th T20I match against them. Dercksen provides South Africa with a batter who, if the team has a collapse, would be able to reinforce their position, as well as a bowler who would break up partnerships even with suboptimal conditions.Missing stars

The absence of two players has an impact on the forecast. The fact that Sophie Devine is not part of New Zealand’s ODI squad means that they lack both a well-known and powerful stroke player and also part of their seam bowling attack. The same can be said of Marizanne Kapp; however, her absence is greater than that of Sophie Devine in terms of ODIs since she contributes early wickets, late runs, and control that allows the remainder of the South African Proteas lineup to fit into place.

As a result, South Africa will now be more reliant on Wolvaardt and Khaka’s early performance; while New Zealand is more likely to look for that through collective effort and may ultimately prove to be to their benefit on home turf. New Zealand has demonstrated throughout their summer ODI series that all of their players including; Bates, Halliday, Green, Amelia Kerr, Jess Kerr and their medium-fast contributions from their support bowlers can provide a balanced contribution throughout their matches.

Conditions and Game Strategy

The weather for the scheduled match day in Christchurch predicts cloudy skies through the afternoon, with an anticipated temperature of 17 degrees Celsius, another possibility of major disruptions from nature is not evident. Generally speaking, this means that the seamers will have the opportunity early, but as soon as the shine is lost from the ball, the batters will be able to establish themselves. Hagley Oval very rarely plays as a ‘free-hitting’ venue to start an innings, but rather as a venue that demands solid timing and patience from the batter.

This setup should allow for the bowlers who can hit the top of the off stump become very relevant; New Zealand’s Jess Kerr has the potential to be a huge factor, along with South Africa’s Khaka. It may also encourage both captains to be cautious at the toss, as run-scoring continues to be an important part of a women’s ODI cricket game. Depending on whether teams are trying to gain scoreboard pressure, 1st innings total of 245 to 265 will appear much larger than they actually are on paper.The same area recently saw New Zealand beat South Africa in a T20I, which means that going into this match at the venue, New Zealand should have a good idea of how the pitch will play in terms of speed and bounce. If you are an India-based reader watching this match in the morning, you will experience a familiar visual cue as well. Rather than being able to just hit sixes from the first ball, think about WPL-related games when the new ball will bounce and offer seaming movement to openers before batters score runs. This rhythm will work a little better for New Zealand right now.

📰 Devine, Jess Kerr power New Zealand to a series win with a game to sparehttps://t.co/2tiYz7lxG5#News #BreakingNews #Cricinfo pic.twitter.com/cGG3wKe2b2

— Muhammad (@BilalWaris023) March 23, 2026

Probable Playing XI

The following teams listed below are projected lineups based on the ODI squads released, recent T20 games played during this series, and how each team’s respective balance appears to be heading into Christchurch. New Zealand has announced a 13-player ODI squad with Mitzi Kher captaining the squad, along with returning players Bates, Plimmer, and Devonshire. The South African ODI squad confirms the return of Khaka and Klaas and finally van Niekerk, while Kapp is not available for selection.New Zealand Women’s likely XI: Bates, Georgia Plimmer, Amelia Kerr (c), Halliday, Green, Gaze (wk), Devonshire, J. Kerr, R. Mair, Bree Illing, N ensi Patel.

Team	Likely XI
New Zealand Women’s likely XI	Bates, Georgia Plimmer, Amelia Kerr (c), Halliday, Green, Gaze (wk), Devonshire, J. Kerr, R. Mair, Bree Illing, N ensi Patel.
South Africa Women’s likely XI	Tazmin Brits, Wolvaardt (c), Suné Luus, Annerie Dercksen, Chloé Tryon, Nadine de Klerk, Sinalo Jafta (wk), Dané van Niekerk, Nonkululeko Mlaba, Ayabonga Khaka, Masabata Klaas.

Close calls

If New Zealand are looking to add another out-and-out seamer, Kayley Knight could get her debut, with either Devonshire or Patel likely to make way. South Africa also have room for Tumi Sekhukhune or Kayla Reyneke if they want to take a faster bowler rather than the combination of van Niekerk control and batting depth.

Match Notes

• New Zealand come from a whitewash of South Africa in the T20 format with a 4-1 result and capped off the series with a 92-run victory in Christchurch on March 25.
• Amelia Kerr took 16 wickets in the 3-0 sweep of Zimbabwe in ODIs in the early part of the month, but prevailed with an ODI record for her of 7 for 34 in Dunedin.
• South Africa won their most recent ODI series against Pakistan 2-1, scoring 260/6 wins from the series’ first two matches and 361/8 in the last win.
• In women’s ODIs, it has been seven of the last eight against New Zealand with the most recent match on January 17, 2020.
• The rankings also indicate a relatively small gap, with South Africa ranked 4 and New Zealand ranked 5.

The Call

One safe assessment is that this will be a closer series than what the scorelines from the midweek T20 series suggested. South Africa have enough batting power to keep them close to winning and their recent form against New Zealand is too convincing to disregard. However, a Wolvaardt half-century or Khaka in a new-ball impact would change all of that in a short time.

Nonetheless, New Zealand look to be slightly better positioned to win this first ODI, given they play on home soil, Amelia Kerr in extraordinary form, Halliday having made great strides as a middle-order ODI player, and a strong recent pattern against Zimbabwe having set them up for this match. South Africa not having Kapp is clearly the single player absence that affects the team the most.

The Prediction to Win

New Zealand Women to defeat South Africa Women in this 1st ODI, with Amelia Kerr as the likely player to be the match shaper, and if the top order puts together a respectable performance that allows Brooke Halliday to be the player who quietly but effectively determines the final balance of the innings; South Africa remain a legitimate threat, but New Zealand have a slight edge at Hagley Oval.